PREPARED FOR EXTREME SCENARIO

By Philip M. Lustre Jr.

IT was not difficult to read the dynamics of the franchise extension of ABS-CBN. At the outset, the Lopez family, owner of the controlling interest of the broadcast giant, knows they face an uphill battle to have its franchise extended beyond the May 4, 2020 expiration. For them, the dynamics would lead to a single scenario, which is the extreme, and they have prepared for it.

Since 2018, they know the extreme scenario: franchise termination, non-extension, and closure of the broadcast facility for at least the next two years. Learning from their 1972 experience when Ferdinand Marcos practically dispossessed them of their business empire in exchange for nothing, the Lopezes do not want this time to be caught with their pants down again.

They do not want to be put in another extremely precarious and defensive position, when they could not negotiate for anything. History should not repeat itself, its patriarch Oscar Lopez could have thought. Hence, they are prepared for the extreme scenario.

It is the people in power who misread the Lopezes. Rodrigo Duterte, the mentally unstable political overlord, and Bong Go, his chief acolyte, could have thought the Lopezes were cowering in fear, as they have wielded the unrestrained use of state power. They could have thought the Lopezes would negotiate and sell their crown jewel for a song.

They guys in Malacanang probably do not know the Lopezes have been steeled by the shabby treatment Marcos gave them. They have failed to understand the extent of their resolve to slug it out once more. They are fighters and survivors by all means.

Congressional leaders have mistaken the Lopezes’ reticence as readiness – or willingness - to strike a deal with them for a franchise extension in exchange for pieces of gold. Although they know Duterte would refuse franchise extension, those crocs had managed to sail by themselves laying down baits to entice the Lopezes to go to the table and negotiate with them. Alas, the economic family did not in any way bite.

Negotiations for a new franchise did not happen. Why would the Lopezes negotiate when they have prepared for the worst scenario three years ago? Hence, the Lopezes did not bother to dangle any bribe money in exchange for franchise extension. 

In fact, they have chosen to keep distance from those crocs.

Knowing the difficulties they would suffer with the political maggot from Davao City and his ilk and the bribe-taking lawmakers, the Lopezes have prepared instead for the worst: close shop for the next two years, work for a new franchise after the 2022 presidential elections, and reopen only under a new political leadership.

They did not foresee a fair deal from the political leaders.  They foresaw they would be forced to sell the broadcast firm at a bargain price and use of its broadcast facilities to promote China’s agenda. The last scenario is totally unacceptable. They would not have any part of it.

Hence, the Lopezes have chosen to stick to their guns. They would not negotiate for franchise extension. They have been prepared for the worst. They will be back in 2022.