A POST-DUTERTE AGENDA

By Philip M. Lustre Jr.

Now, the question: What is the post-Duterte era agenda?

President Rodrigo Duterte himself has cultivated discussions of what has to be done in the event he is no longer the president. This issue has assumed importance, when he had admitted publicly that he was afflicted with certain illnesses and that he could probably die and fail to complete his six-year term of office.

Talks of his failing health were somehow exacerbated by public admission that he was taking Fentanyl, a powerful drug administered to cancer patients to ease physical pain. Moreover, he was pointing to either Vice President Leni Robredo or former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. as replacement.

Moreover, his failure to engage in any public appearance for the first week of 2017 had reinforced further widespread beliefs that he could be sick or suffering from an ailment that has prevented him to go public. Moreover, he was reported to have quietly sought treatment in an anti-cancer hospital in Guanzhou, China, triggering further discussions on the state of his health..

Let’s discuss the premises before going to the subject matter.

Succession mechanism

Article 6, Section 8 of the 1987 Constitution provides the succession mechanism:

“In case of death, permanent disability, removal from office, or resignation of the President, the Vice-President shall become the President to serve the unexpired term. In case of death, permanent disability, removal from office, or resignation of both the President and Vice-President, the President of the Senate or, in case of his inability, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, shall then act as President until the President or Vice-President shall have been elected and qualified.”

Although the 1987 Constitution clearly says the vice president takes if ever the president dies or suffers permanent disability, this constitutional provision has many gray areas too. It does not specify ways to declare the president’s permanent disability. It does not say which person or institution could declare him as permanently disabled.

Ecuadorean experience

But the country could be guided by precedents in other nations, particularly Ecuador, a medium-sized nation of 15 million people in South America.

On February 6, 1997, its Congress did the unprecedented by declaring Abdala Bucaram Ortiz as “mentally unfit,” replacing him with the vice president, and forcing him to seek asylum in Panama. The congressional initiative was swift and decisive as Bucaram, son of Lebanese immigrants, was president for only seven months. He was popularly elected in 1996, winning 21 of Ecuador’s 22 provinces.

Although the economic issues that bedeviled his presidency were factors for his dismissal, his series of comedic acts led the Ecuadorean Congress to dismiss him. Bucaram was perceived a mad man; he branded himself as “el loco” (crazy guy). In fact, when the Ecuadorean economy plummeted, Bucaram diverted the Ecuadoreans’ attention and did what he thought was best – by being himself.

He did not just cultivate his public image of an iconoclast, who challenged authorities and traditions, but overplayed it to become comic, who sought to entertain the Ecuadoreans, who, at that time, felt the economic pressures and were becoming dismayed by his lack of leadership. Amid the scandals and corruption charges, Bucaram released CD copies of his music entitled “A Crazy Man Who Loves” (“El Loco Que Ama” in Spanish). He shaved off his trademark moustache on live TV and later adopted the clipped moustache of Nazi Germany dictator Adolf Hitler.

Bucaram invited for lunch Lorena Bobbitt, the Ecuadorian American who gained notoriety for castrating her husband. He attended the World Banana Queen contest in Quito, grabbed the microphone and sang, as he was surrounded by scantily clad contestants. Bucaram mocked an ex-president by comparing him to a donkey. When asked for a public apology, Bucaram obliged but he did it to the donkeys.

The air of negativity and hatred that pervaded his presidency culminated in his dismissal, triggering a precedent that has become a new model for the rest of the world. Despite his tragic political fate, Bucaram managed to give the quote of all time: “They call me ‘Crazy Abdalá’, but madmen speak from the heart and see with their soul.”

It is inconceivable how the Philippine Congress would react just in case the President’s health declines to the point of permanent disability, rendering him incapable to discharge his functions as chief executive. In the absence of any enabling law on the constitutional provision on succession, it is likely that any act of Congress to declare him as permanently disabled could be challenged before the Supreme Court.

Extra-constitutional means

The emerging democracy movement could trigger new political upheavals, as democratic forces go to the streets anew to counter the authoritarian tendencies and the political forces that represent them. In its view, the current political leadership, as represented by Duterte and the PDP-Laban, is in alliance with political forces and families that represent and pursue an authoritarian agenda – the Arroyos and the Marcoses.

Depending on the political alliances and strength it could muster and its ability to address the burning issues, including the unabated extra judicial killings (EJKs), the democracy movement, as represented by various political forces that adhere to the restored democracy, could pose the biggest challenge to the Duterte government. It could trigger political upheavals that could lead to his removal from office.

This year could be a watershed year for Philippine democracy. Aside from impending death or permanent disability, at least three major political events, or their combination, have been identified as trigger mechanisms for a change of political leadership. These are: resignations of key Cabinet members; declaration of permanent disability by Congress; and withdrawal of support by the Armed Forces.

Coupled by the rising tide of political activism to be led by the pro-democracy movement composed mostly of millennials and the emergence of Vice President Leni Robredo as the new icon of democracy, the initiatives from the Executive Department, Congress, and the Armed Forces could lead to a political crisis of unimaginable proportions. It could later lead to the collapse of the government and its replacement by a new one.

New democratic agenda

The new democratic agenda in a post-Duterte era could mean the pursuit of the following:

1.      Creation of a new commission to investigate the spate of extrajudicial killings, identify the responsible people, and recommend their criminal prosecution and other moves to prevent their escape from the bar of justice;

2.    Redirection of the country’s foreign policy to acknowledge, adhere, and implement those international and bilateral agreements, of which the Philippines is a signatory, and other binding decisions by international bodies;

3.    Redirection of the anti-drug war to complete adherence to the rule of law and due process, complete rejection of EJKs and other means regarded as fascistic, and reeducation of all law enforcement agencies on democratic ideals; and

4.    Reeducation of the Filipino people on the contending ideals and values the forces of democracy and authoritarianism represent.

The new post-Duterte era government could also work on the following objectives:

1.      A new offensive on economic diplomacy to regain the economic losses, which include foreign entities that have withheld their participation and entry into the Philippine market;

2.    Reinstitution of the anti-corruption campaign of the Aquino administration and re-imposition of the anti-corruption values and ideals that have been sidelined by the unrestrained focus on the anti-drug war;

3.    Reorganization of the entire government to erase all vestiges of authoritarianism and the values its represents;

4.    Pursuit of a foreign relations offensive to regain support of major allies like the United States and European Union without prejudice to moves to strength of ties with China and Russia;

5.     Pursuit of a new campaign to “demarcosify” Philippine society by explaining to the Filipino people the Marcos legacy, which includes massive human rights violations, crony capitalism, and massive plunder of the national coffers.