WILL IT BE SARA OR BONG GO?

By Philip M. Lustre Jr.

LET’S leave temporarily the issue of the pandemic brought by the China-Duterte Virus. Let’s talk about the 2022 presidential elections – and its dynamics.

Frequent questions: Whom will the Davao Group field in 2022? Will it be Bong Go or Sara Duterte?

It has been observed that the Davao Group has been posturing as if it owns the Philippines and the ruling coalition. It believes and behaves as if everybody would listen and follow what it says down the line. Its monster attitude could be felt in the political scene.

But this issue would depend on the presidential health. If Rodrigo Duterte’s illness turns for the worst and dies before 2022 and Vice President Leni Robredo takes over, this issue could be out of the question. Neither Bong Go nor Sara would not run for the presidency.

But if everything turns well, which means no Duterte death, no RevGov, no federal shift, no military junta by coup or self-coup, or no major political cataclysm, and a relatively quiet political transition happens through the electoral process, we could expect the Davao Group to field its presidential candidate to perpetuate itself in power.

Political opinion differs on who has the better chance. Although both are dumb and could not be expected to provide any sense of political vision and direction, it is important to understand the Davao Group has almost limitless campaign funds to slug it out in 2022. The funds could come from legal and illegal means, or even from China, which has an increasing stake in the Philippines.

Nonetheless, they are substantial and could be expected to push either Sara or Bong Go to throw his hat into the political ring.

Anointment by Rodrigo Duterte is important. Sick and mad (this is shown by the fact he is programmed to curse and spew expletives every time he goes public), Rodrigo Duterte appears non-committal on whom to anoint. Publicly, he says he discourages Sara to run for president, but privately, he is said to be pushing her. Sara’s biggest problem is her political naivete.

Political operators, in search of doleouts, would congregate around her, but this is no assurance she stands a chance to win. Hr father could opt fo Bong Go because he has the perfect reputation for being an indispensable political operator, or fixer. Besides, China appears to favor him. He has been the perfect go-between to Duterte. China feels it has to reward the fixer.

The Davao Group may have the resources or the candidate in Sara ang Bong Go, but it has to understand that the political mood could change drastically in the run-up to 2022. The political pendulum may swing drastically to the other side.

Because of the gargantuan failure of the Davao Group and the ruling coalition to handle the pandemic, the economic recession has happened. The economic recession could lead to a thorough change in the public perception of the Davao Group.

Hence, the change could favor the candidate from Luzon or the Visayas, or from the ranks of the democratic forces. Besides, Mindanao is not a viable political base and the Davao Group could be adversely affected by the change of the political pendeulum.

Moreover, the Davao Group does not dominate the Mindanao Bloc. Other blocs could secede from the Davao Group and coalesce with political coalitions from Luzon and the Visayas.

Will it be Sara Duterte or Bong Go?

As neither looks politically viable, it could be said this question is totally irrelevant. Fielding either Bong Go or Sara is political suicide. It is best to forget it.