LENI ROBREDO'S GAMBIT

By Philip M. Lustre Jr.

VICE President Leni Robredo's announcement that she would assume the mantle of leadership of the disparate opposition forces in the country was not a spur-of-the-moment initiative to project her relevance in the political spectrum.

It was part of a well- conceived, carefully laid down plan to present herself as the democratic alternative, even as President Rodrigo Duterte continues to take moves to plunge the nation into another political experiment in authoritarianism.

She has several audience on this initiative: first, the country's democratic forces, which continue to oppose Duterte's counterrevolution to the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution; and second, the international community, which has been strongly opposing the spate of extrajudicial killings (EJKs) and other human rights violations under his government.

The men and women in uniform in the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Philippine National Police (PNP), constitute the third audience. They have the monopoly of arms and could be decisive to stem the tide of authoritarianism.

Although perceived as the laid back leader from the laid back Naga City, the Vice President was reluctant to lead the democratic forces, until it has become clear that Duterte would do every means - fair or foul - to install dictatorship in the country.

Moreover, it has been made clear that Duterte would continue his appeasement policy even to the point of surrendering the country's territories in the contested West Philippine Sea to China. The Vice President has been strongly against the pro-China stance of the Duterte government.

Two developments could have propelled the Vice President's decision to go all out against Duterte. The first is the multinational initiative to neutralize and stop finally China's inroads in the South China Sea.

The multinational forces led by the United States and composed of Japan, France, Great Britain, and South Korea, have assumed a more visible and tougher presence in South China, indicating they would enforce the 2012 decision of the United Nations Permanent Arbitral Commission rejecting China's claim over the contested waters. They have sent their naval warships to counter China's naval presence in the area.

The Vice President could have sense that the U.S.-led multinational forces are not abandoning South China Sea; they are willing to safeguard the vital sea lanes to ensure a free flow of commerce. About $5 trillion worth of commerce passes through the South China Sea. Hence, the country or group of nations that controls South China Sea controls world trade.

The Vice President has understood that Philippine politics could be somehow dovetailed to the strategic objectives of the U.S.-led multinational coalition in the South China Sea. When she sensed that the multinational coalition would not leave South China Sea, she knew that China would have very limited way to prop up the Duterte government. The Duterte government is lameduck to say the least.

The Vice President's decision to lead the opposition and present a democratic alternative is also an impetus for the AFP and PNP to ignore Duterte's overtures for the two institutions to join him in his anti-democratic initiatives. The 32 years of restored democracy could have injected democratic values and ideals into the two institutions.

Her move would allow the leaders of the two institutions to pause and take notice of the democatic alternative. In fact, several AFP leaders have been pushing her and the democratic forces to show a critical mass of adherents to strengthen opposition to the Duterte government. Any withdrawal of their support to the Duterte government is largely a function of a strong democratic alternative. 

Very recently, the AFP leadership has taken a strong position against the removal of the AFP as "protector of the people" provision in the new constitution, which Duterte's minions have conceived to replace the 1987 Constitution.

Of course, the democratic forces composed of the alphabet soup of civil society organizations that oppose the authoritarian tendencies of the current government have been asking the Vice President to lead them. She could not fail them.