NO REVOLUTIONARY GOV'T, NATIONWIDE MARTIAL LAW

By Philip M. Lustre Jr.

No, the sick old man of the South is not in any position to declare a revolutionary government or impose a nationwide martial law.

He is not in the position to touch the nerve of history and plunge the nation into another era of political chaos and uncertainty.

The sick old man has been completely and effectively neutralized. His hands are handcuffed; his feet, chained. Any move by the sick old man to challenge and disturb the nation's restored democracy would be equally met by counter movements to stop his initiatives. If push comes to shove, he would certainly be deposed.

Premises

Let's lay down the premises

First, the sick old man is truly sick. He is suffering from many ailments. He does not possess the intellectual, mental, physical, and even spiritual qualities to sustain any move to touch the nerve of history through a revolutionary government or nationwide martial law. He is perceived to be mentally sick too as indicated by his erratic statements.

At 72, he is a spent force. Even the international community knows and understands that his health could not withstand the rigors of a revolutionary government or martial law administration.

The international community likewise knows and understands that the sick old man is a mere populist leader, who hardly possesses the commitment to the essential tenets of democracy. Although he tends to be bombastic, he is not meant to be taken seriously.

Even his political victory in 2016 is being viewed as a fluke and not necessarily reflective of the people's will. Moreover, he is perceived as being surrounded by political lightweights and court jesters, who could hardly make any difference in governance - that is running the country.

Second, his planned revolutionary government and nationwide martial law has no basis. There is no existing people's revolt to warrant the establishment of a revolutionary government. Cory Aquino established a revolutionary government in 1986, but her government had the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution as its father.

Furthermore, the conditions that would require the imposition of a nationwide martial law does not exist. All those noises of destabilization are just noises. In many instances, the sick old man himself is being perceived as the destabilizing force.

Besides, the 1987 Constitution stipulates stringent conditions for the imposition of a nationwide martial law. There's hardly any way for him to tinker with its provisions and use it to prolong his stay in power.

Knowing the experience when dictator Ferdinand Marcos imposed martial law in 1972 and imposed a one-man rule that only ended in the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution, the 1987 Constitution is essentially against any imposition of martial and its use to reimpose any semblance of dictatorship.

Regional security

The third premise is essentially the current situation in East Asia. Northeast Asia, of which Japan and South Korea are the leading powers, have to contend with the recidivist hermit kingdom - North Korea, which threatens to disrupt regional security with its use of its nuclear armament.

Southeast Asia, which has the ASEAN member-states, has to deal with China's hegemony, particularly on the South China Sea. Again, the issue is regional security. China and North Korea have to be contained. The United States, Japan, and other developed countries plus ASEAN have to deal with those threats on regional security.

The major powers would certainly stop any centrifugal tendencies that could disrupt the balance of power in East Asia and plunge the region into uncertainty and chaos. Every nation within the U.S sphere of influence has to toe the line.

Despite the bravado and bravura of the sick old man, the major powers look at him as a joke. They look at him as all bluster, lacking the substance to become a genuine leader of influence in the region.

As events unfold their policy towards the sick old man and his government is a combination of carrot and stick: carrot in the form of concessional loans and grants-in-aid; and stick in the form of veiled threats of canceling and withdrawing those loans and aid if ever he veers away from the tenets of democracy and plunge the Philippine in another political experiment of authoritarianism.

Foreign aid

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised the extension of more than P480 billion in concessional loans and grants-in-aid to the Philippines, but this has been premised on the strong conviction that it pays to help a neighbor in need than humiliating it in the family of nations.

Japan's extension of foreign credits and grants-in-aid is not a charity work. It is premised on the old sick man's promise he would not disrupt the country's political stability and contribute to any instability in the East Asian region.

That the Philippines remains within the sphere of influence of the U.S., Japan, and other developed countries is likely to be bolstered when U.S. President Donald Trump goes to the Philippines by the middle of this month.

Trump is to announce the U.S. own package of assistance to the Philippines, which has been traditionally described as its main ally in the Southeast Asia. Again, the U.S is not doing any charity works for the Philippines. Any assistance it extends is usually tied to certain political objectives.

The political objective is certainly to prevent any disruption in East Asia and keep the world a little safer.

Marshall Plan doctrine

It has been asked why major powers continue to the help the Philippines despite its continuing violations of human rights. The answer lies on history.

When the Allied Forces, led by France, United Kingdom, and the U.S. won the First World War, they exacted heavy price from the losing Central Powers, led by Germany. They came out with the Treaty of Versailles, which contained onerous provisions that required Germany to pay heavy reparations and demilitarize itself.

The Treaty of Versailles became the rallying cry of Adolf Hitler, the Austrian corporal who eventually rose to become Germany's dictator. The Allied Forces learned their lessons. Hence, no more Treaty of Versailles.

Instead, the U.S. came out with the Marshall Plan, which helped Germany and other losers in the European theater to rise and rehabilitate. The Marshall Plan, named after then U.S. State George Marshall, has enabled Germany to become a major economic power.

The U.S. has likewise helped Japan to rise from its bitter defeat to become a major economic power after the war. It has been asserted that they accomplished a lot during the post war period.

But the U.S. and other Allied powers did not help without preconditions. Germany has to completely denounce Nazism. In fact, German laws ban the Nazi Party; the mere display of the swastika flag is prohibited.

Japan has to adopt the Peace Constitution, which Gen. Douglas McArthur, as wartime governor of Japan, had imposed. The Peace Constitution has put a cap on Japan's defense expenditures to one percent of its GNP. This has been relaxed lately to counter China's rise.

The Marshall Plan doctrine somehow stipulates that it is always better to help a country to rise than humiliate it. Usually, the foreign aid is always subject to some strings usually attached to political objectives like commitment to democracy and world peace.

Unstable but manageable

The international community, particularly the major powers look at the sick old man as fundamentally unstable, but manageable. They have using foreign aid as the virtual handcuffs on him.

Actually, the sick old man hardly has the domestic support. The Church, both the Majority (Roman Catholic Church) and Minority (various Protestant denominations and Christian evangelical groups), oppose the state sponsored spate of extrajudicial killings (EJKs).

He does not have the support of the Armed Forces on specific issues, particularly the planned martial law and revolutionary government. The defense and military establishment looks with suspicion his perceived dalliance with the Left, particularly the outlawed Communist Party of the Philippines, the New People's Army, its military arm, and the National Democratic Front, its political arm.

Actually, in his own isolation, two major key sectors - Church and military - is perceived as factors that would define the country's future directions. As the threat of a revolutionary government declaration and nationwide martial law declaration is being nipped in the bud, the pro-democracy forces could focus on the current political imperatives.

The imperatives are to neutralize the cooptation of democratic institutions like the Supreme Court, Office of the Ombudsman, Commission on Elections, and even the Commission Human rights. Democratic forces have to energized themselves to counter the threats to weaken their leadership through impeachment processes.

For the meantime, it pays to understand that the sick old man is not a threat to the restored democracy. 😌x