NO REVOLUTIONARY GOV'T, NATIONWIDE MARTIAL LAW

By Philip M. Lustre Jr.

No, the sick old man of the South is not in any position to declare a revolutionary government or impose a nationwide martial law.

He is not in the position to touch the nerve of history and plunge the nation into another era of political chaos and uncertainty.

The sick old man has been completely and effectively neutralized. His hands are handcuffed; his feet, chained. Any move by the sick old man to challenge and disturb the nation's restored democracy would be equally met by counter movements to stop his initiatives. If push comes to shove, he would certainly be deposed.

Premises

Let's lay down the premises

First, the sick old man is truly sick. He is suffering from many ailments. He does not possess the intellectual, mental, physical, and even spiritual qualities to sustain any move to touch the nerve of history through a revolutionary government or nationwide martial law. He is perceived to be mentally sick too as indicated by his erratic statements.

At 72, he is a spent force. Even the international community knows and understands that his health could not withstand the rigors of a revolutionary government or martial law administration.

The international community likewise knows and understands that the sick old man is a mere populist leader, who hardly possesses the commitment to the essential tenets of democracy. Although he tends to be bombastic, he is not meant to be taken seriously.

Even his political victory in 2016 is being viewed as a fluke and not necessarily reflective of the people's will. Moreover, he is perceived as being surrounded by political lightweights and court jesters, who could hardly make any difference in governance - that is running the country.

Second, his planned revolutionary government and nationwide martial law has no basis. There is no existing people's revolt to warrant the establishment of a revolutionary government. Cory Aquino established a revolutionary government in 1986, but her government had the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution as its father.

Furthermore, the conditions that would require the imposition of a nationwide martial law does not exist. All those noises of destabilization are just noises. In many instances, the sick old man himself is being perceived as the destabilizing force.

Besides, the 1987 Constitution stipulates stringent conditions for the imposition of a nationwide martial law. There's hardly any way for him to tinker with its provisions and use it to prolong his stay in power.

Knowing the experience when dictator Ferdinand Marcos imposed martial law in 1972 and imposed a one-man rule that only ended in the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution, the 1987 Constitution is essentially against any imposition of martial and its use to reimpose any semblance of dictatorship.

Regional security

The third premise is essentially the current situation in East Asia. Northeast Asia, of which Japan and South Korea are the leading powers, have to contend with the recidivist hermit kingdom - North Korea, which threatens to disrupt regional security with its use of its nuclear armament.

Southeast Asia, which has the ASEAN member-states, has to deal with China's hegemony, particularly on the South China Sea. Again, the issue is regional security. China and North Korea have to be contained. The United States, Japan, and other developed countries plus ASEAN have to deal with those threats on regional security.

The major powers would certainly stop any centrifugal tendencies that could disrupt the balance of power in East Asia and plunge the region into uncertainty and chaos. Every nation within the U.S sphere of influence has to toe the line.

Despite the bravado and bravura of the sick old man, the major powers look at him as a joke. They look at him as all bluster, lacking the substance to become a genuine leader of influence in the region.

As events unfold their policy towards the sick old man and his government is a combination of carrot and stick: carrot in the form of concessional loans and grants-in-aid; and stick in the form of veiled threats of canceling and withdrawing those loans and aid if ever he veers away from the tenets of democracy and plunge the Philippine in another political experiment of authoritarianism.

Foreign aid

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised the extension of more than P480 billion in concessional loans and grants-in-aid to the Philippines, but this has been premised on the strong conviction that it pays to help a neighbor in need than humiliating it in the family of nations.

Japan's extension of foreign credits and grants-in-aid is not a charity work. It is premised on the old sick man's promise he would not disrupt the country's political stability and contribute to any instability in the East Asian region.

That the Philippines remains within the sphere of influence of the U.S., Japan, and other developed countries is likely to be bolstered when U.S. President Donald Trump goes to the Philippines by the middle of this month.

Trump is to announce the U.S. own package of assistance to the Philippines, which has been traditionally described as its main ally in the Southeast Asia. Again, the U.S is not doing any charity works for the Philippines. Any assistance it extends is usually tied to certain political objectives.

The political objective is certainly to prevent any disruption in East Asia and keep the world a little safer.

Marshall Plan doctrine

It has been asked why major powers continue to the help the Philippines despite its continuing violations of human rights. The answer lies on history.

When the Allied Forces, led by France, United Kingdom, and the U.S. won the First World War, they exacted heavy price from the losing Central Powers, led by Germany. They came out with the Treaty of Versailles, which contained onerous provisions that required Germany to pay heavy reparations and demilitarize itself.

The Treaty of Versailles became the rallying cry of Adolf Hitler, the Austrian corporal who eventually rose to become Germany's dictator. The Allied Forces learned their lessons. Hence, no more Treaty of Versailles.

Instead, the U.S. came out with the Marshall Plan, which helped Germany and other losers in the European theater to rise and rehabilitate. The Marshall Plan, named after then U.S. State George Marshall, has enabled Germany to become a major economic power.

The U.S. has likewise helped Japan to rise from its bitter defeat to become a major economic power after the war. It has been asserted that they accomplished a lot during the post war period.

But the U.S. and other Allied powers did not help without preconditions. Germany has to completely denounce Nazism. In fact, German laws ban the Nazi Party; the mere display of the swastika flag is prohibited.

Japan has to adopt the Peace Constitution, which Gen. Douglas McArthur, as wartime governor of Japan, had imposed. The Peace Constitution has put a cap on Japan's defense expenditures to one percent of its GNP. This has been relaxed lately to counter China's rise.

The Marshall Plan doctrine somehow stipulates that it is always better to help a country to rise than humiliate it. Usually, the foreign aid is always subject to some strings usually attached to political objectives like commitment to democracy and world peace.

Unstable but manageable

The international community, particularly the major powers look at the sick old man as fundamentally unstable, but manageable. They have using foreign aid as the virtual handcuffs on him.

Actually, the sick old man hardly has the domestic support. The Church, both the Majority (Roman Catholic Church) and Minority (various Protestant denominations and Christian evangelical groups), oppose the state sponsored spate of extrajudicial killings (EJKs).

He does not have the support of the Armed Forces on specific issues, particularly the planned martial law and revolutionary government. The defense and military establishment looks with suspicion his perceived dalliance with the Left, particularly the outlawed Communist Party of the Philippines, the New People's Army, its military arm, and the National Democratic Front, its political arm.

Actually, in his own isolation, two major key sectors - Church and military - is perceived as factors that would define the country's future directions. As the threat of a revolutionary government declaration and nationwide martial law declaration is being nipped in the bud, the pro-democracy forces could focus on the current political imperatives.

The imperatives are to neutralize the cooptation of democratic institutions like the Supreme Court, Office of the Ombudsman, Commission on Elections, and even the Commission Human rights. Democratic forces have to energized themselves to counter the threats to weaken their leadership through impeachment processes.

For the meantime, it pays to understand that the sick old man is not a threat to the restored democracy. 😌x

GROUP DANCING AT ITS BEST

By Philip M. Lustre Jr.

Call it a serendipity, or a pleasant discovery, but group dancing is certainly entertaining.

Last night was a night of fun and meaningful entertainment, as I and my friends watched several men and women did group dancing in a nightspot in Quezon City.

The occasion was the opening of Sugar Ray’s Sports Pub and Resto in the Fisher Mall complex along Quezon Avenue in Quezon City. Sugar Ray’s is the former Morita Resto, which had a slot at the other end of shopping mall complex, but had closed shop. Bobby del Rosario, a fishing magnate, owns Fisher Mall and Sugar Ray's.

Our Clouds@Night, a band led by Gabby Claudio, a former political affairs secretary in the Ramos and GMA administrations, provided the live music. Gabby, now a Pagcor board member, played the lead guitar. Hermie Aquino, a friend, treated me and another friend at Sugar Ray’s.

Aside from booze and excellent cuisine, Sugar Ray’s offers ballroom dancing to patrons and denizens. Dancing couples could go to the dance floor, but, at certain intervals, they can join group dancing (or line dancing), which is led by a dance instructor, who provides the dancing moves, which have to be followed religiously by the dance enthusiasts.

Customers, who are not in the mood to participate, or who simply do not know how to dance, could stay on their seats and watch the group dancing. I swear that watching them is entertaining and relaxing too.

While Gabby’s band played a series of disco music, nearly two dozens of women went to the dance floor and joined the dance leader for 30 long minutes of line dancing. I and my friends were happy to stay on our seats and watch group dancing, which is certainly a form of aerobic exercises.

I had fun watching the odd mixture of women, who went to the dance floor to show their dancing prowess. Bored housewives, mistresses guarded by their jealous lovers, middle-aged professionals, obese women who wanted to shed off extra adipose tissues, and ladies, who just want to have extra endorphins, were among the participants.

I saw a short, roly-poly woman, who stands barely five feet, but she danced feverishly and she did it without any trace of inhibition on her face. She is probably a member of the Club 40 Plus, as indicated by her girth. Incidentally, this club does not refer to women aged 40 and above; they are women with a waistline of at least 40 inches.

A woman with a pair of eyeglasses looks nerdy, but my naughty mind could not help but muse if she were a daughter of a pair of strict parents, who did not allow her to go on date during her younger days because she was going after for some scholarship or cum laude honors in college. She too danced passionately as if the salvation of her soul depended on it.

A trio or seemingly bored middle-aged housewives appeared to have found their freedom on the dancing floor, as they kept on gyrating in wild abandon. The dance floor seemed to have been their sanctuary; the dance leader, their high priest.

I gleefully watched a comely young woman joining the group dance, even as his lover, an aging gigolo with a pair of beagle eyes, watched her approvingly on the sidelines. When the music ended, they hurriedly paid their bill and left. They could have a different agenda.

Some millennial women joined several ladies, presumably over 60 or senoritas (senior citizens). The senior citizens sported heavily dyed black hair ostensibly to look a little younger. They too enjoyed the night. The younger ones had their hair dyed either blonde or auburn.

They danced and gyrated in complete abandon and, of course, to their hearts’ content; there was no dull moment watching them. Most had perfected the steps shown by the dance leader, while others made occasional lapses. But they were happy.

By 10:30 pm, the music ended. It was time to go home. I was told Sugar Ray’s opens at 6:30 pm and closes at 10:30 pm, although customers are given an extension of 30 minutes to finish their drinks. By 11 pm, it closes automatically.

I have the impression that the place does not intend to compete with the likes of Pegasus, Classmate, Heartbeat, and other high-end nightclubs along Quezon Avenue. Ergo, Sugar Ray’s is for clean fun.  It's not for dirty fun, or something that has a happy ending. It’s for legitimate people looking for legitimate fun.

I saw the guys leaving the place with smiles on their faces. Yes, group dancing could be therapeutic too.

MENTAL FARTS OF A MAD MAN

By Philip M. Lustre Jr.

This afternoon, the man in Malacanang had threatened to declare a revolutionary government to replace the constitutional government. But he laid down a basic premise - if what he has perceived as the current “destabilization” continues. A big if, indeed.

The problem with him is that he keeps on threatening, as if everybody is a simpleton, who would kowtow to his every wish. There is no discernment in his public pronouncements. Everything that comes out of his big mouth is a spur of the moment thing.

There are three things to consider in his latest public statement.

The very first issue is the state of his mental health. Considering the series of erratic public utterances he has been making over the last 15 months, the key question: Is he sane enough to stand the rigors of the presidency?

The man is Malacanang is a mad man, who has gone wild. He is perceived to have gone nuts; he is not in control of his mental faculties. A mad man is most dangerous; he could not be held accountable for his insane acts. Neither does he have a concept of public accountability.

If he is insane, will the critical sectors like the military establishment support his revolutionary government?

The second issue is the nature of a revolutionary government. By its very term, it implies that a revolutionary government is a function of a revolution.

To his eternal misfortune, there is no revolution, existing or impending. There is no conclusive revolution to justify the creation of a revolutionary government. Hence, a revolutionary government is totally unnecessary.

Cory Aquino established a revolutionary government because the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution occurred. She had obtained the mandate from the sovereign people to dismantle the Marcos dictatorship.

Cory Aquino did not abuse the people’s mandate. Her revolutionary government operated under the temporary “Freedom Constitution” of 1986. It paved the way for the re-establishment of a constitutional government under the newly restored democratic set-up.

Soon after the February 7, 1987 referendum that ratified the Constitution, Cory Aquino totally abandoned the revolutionary government and nurtured the country towards a newly restored democratic era.

The proposed revolutionary government does not have the political justification. Even the man in Malacanang could not say categorically if he is leading a revolution against the restored democracy and bring the country back to authoritarianism.  

From a conceptual standpoint, a revolutionary government operates outside the ambit of the existing constitution. As an example, Cory Aquino threw away the 1973 Constitution, which served as the blueprint of the Marcos dictatorship.

Hence, any declaration of revolutionary government is dangerous. It means throwing away the established order, paving the way for one-man rule, which is most politically unpalatable given our collective experience under the Marcos dictatorship.

Hence, a revolutionary government led by a mad man is political suicide that would only divide the nation and plunge it in a bitter civil war, the end game of which is not easily discernible.

The Filipino people could find comfort in the constitutional provision that mandates the Armed Forces to be the “protector of the people.” Given the centrifugal tendencies of the current political leadership, the Armed Forces could serve as an excellent counter force to negate those adventurist tendencies from the mad man and his minions.

The third issue is destabilization. This word is in full quotes; it comes from him.

The 1987 Constitution provides sufficient remedy against unsavory political movements and developments. It empowers the president to place the entire country or certain parts under martial law in case of invasion or rebellion. Destabilization, which is milder than invasion or rebellion, is not mentioned.

Destabilization, by its very nature is neither rebellion nor invasion. It could refer to challenges to the status quo, to the political leadership. It could mean a call for him to step down, or clamor to basic sectors, particularly the political opposition, to remove him for office.

Again to the eternal misfortune of the man in Malacanang, this kind of destabilization is legitimate dissent. It is within the ambit of the 1987 Constitution.

His problem is that he could not distinguish legitimate dissent from other political cataclysms. For him, legitimate dissent is an affront to his political authority. He does not understand that it is part of the political dynamics in a restored democracy like ours.

Now, the ultimate question: What if he proceeds with his threat and declare a revolutionary government?

Chances are, he won’t generate the political support to succeed. He would only fail. Hence, his declaration of a revolutionary government would only hasten his political downfall and removal from office.

Who is insane to follow an insane president? Who would implement it? What would be reasons to declare it? Is legitimate dissent - or the elimination of his political adversaries - a justified ground for its declaration?

There are many questions to answer before he could even declare with total confidence.

What the old man in Malacanang has said could be regarded merely farts of his demented mind. He should not be taken seriously. His concept of revolutionary government should be totally ignored.

QUESTION OF IMPLEMENTATION

By Philip M. Lustre Jr.

(Well-meaning netizen-friends have asked my views concerning presidential threats to declare martial law nationwide. This is my response.)

Whoever sits in Malacanang has the power to declare a nationwide martial law. That’s a settled doctrine. But the 1987 Constitution contains stringent conditions when it comes to the exercise of emergency powers.

Learning from the 1972 martial law declaration that led to the installation of the Marcos dictatorship, the framers of the 1987 Constitution have made sure that the martial law declaration would not lead to the suspension of the 1987 Constitution.

The framers have included provisions that allow the civilian courts and Congress to operate. Hence, it does not supplant the civilian authority over the military even when the entire country is in a state of martial law.

The Constitution specifies conditions before the president can declare martial law. He can only do it when the country faces invasion or rebellion. The duration is also specific: sixty days. It is also subject to automatic judicial review by the Supreme Court.

The President can declare nationwide martial law anytime, but only when the country faces two conditions: invasion or rebellion. He can’t use it to prolong his stay in power just like what Ferdinand Marcos did in 1972. Neither can he use those emergency powers to run after his political opponents.

The 1987 Constitution is clear on these issues. The martial law law powers are not meant to stifle dissent.

Ultimately, this is the question: “Can he implement a nationwide martial law?”

Given the questionable state of his mental health, it would be difficult for the president to use martial law powers to get what he wants. His motives would be suspect to the men and women of the Armed Forces, who would be tasked to implement it.

They would not follow orders because he says so. The men and women in uniform would certainly follow legal orders – and disobey illegal orders. 

Likewise, the president has to put every order in writing. Verbal orders would not be followed by those people, who, because they hold the guns, would be accountable for everything they do.

The president can’t just bamboozle his way to establish a new dictatorship. He is not in the position to touch the nerve of history the way Marcos did in 1972.

His hands are tied even if he declares a nationwide martial law. In fact, it would be foolish for him to place the entire country under martial law.   

GOV'T RECASTS INFO STRATEGY, BLOGGERS FACE EXCLUSION

By Philip M. Lustre Jr.

Stung and stunned by mounting public outrage over the spate of fake news emanating from several pro-government bloggers, the Presidential Communications Operations Office (PCOO) is recasting the state information strategy mainly to boost the sagging credibility of the Duterte government.

PCOO Undersecretary Joel Sy Egco said the overall strategy has the following elements:

-         distancing from the pro-government bloggers, who currently face  widespread public criticisms for authoring fake news;

-         prevent them from using the government information infrastructure as their communications platform; and

-         re-instituting editorial independence for its government information agencies.

Egco said the government could not stop bloggers, whether pro or against the government, from expressing themselves, but they should use other communications platforms, which are not the government’s.

Initially, Egco said the PCOO has formed an eight-man editorial advisory board to guide the state-owned Philippine News Agency (PNA) in the dissemination of news that involve various government agencies.

One of the members of the eight-man advisory board said this is intended to prevent the likes of blogger and PCOO Assistant Mocha Uson from using the PNA as their platform for their blogs earlier criticized for containing fake details.

“Those bloggers use to have their say to press editors to carry their blogs on PNA wires. They throw their weight around, drop names of the higher ups to have been published, and callously order editors them on what to do with their copies,” the source said.

“This should never happen again as the advisory board sets up editorial policies,” the source said.

Egco did not deny what the source had said but added that a draft department order has been prepared to put an editorial structure for the PNA and ensure its editorial independence from outside parties, including bloggers.

Egco said pro-government bloggers could use social media as their platforms and the PCOO would not intervene.

Egco earlier said in the public hearing of the Senate committee on public information and mass media last Thursday that the websites that publish fakes news carrying the President’s name could adversely affect the government because the public could perceive these websites as part of the state information machinery.*