By Philip M. Lustre Jr.
The political dynamics in every setting is no different from the law of the jungle. In the jungle, animals that get sick or injured fall prey to predators, while predators kill injured predators to lessen competition in the food chain. The same is true in Philippine politics.
It was when the Marcos dictatorship was at its strongest in 1979, when astute dictator Ferdinand Marcos was rumored to have been suffering from a systemic autoimmune ailment called lupus erythematosus. This disease, which has no known cure, weakens the body's autoimmune system and attacks healthy tissues including kidneys. Marcos suffered kidney failure that arose from lupus.
Marcos had to undergo regular dialysis treatment. On August 7, 1983, he underwent kidney transplant with son Bongbong as donor. His condition was a tightly guarded secret. It was never confirmed. It was only after the Marcoses were kicked out of Malacanang in 1986 that details of his precarious health condition were made public.
But during his incumbency, Marcos and his minions hid his health condition. Although his face was bloated during the waning years of his dictatorship because of heavy steroid intake, Marcos cultivated the myth he was in perfect health. The scuttlebutt was that Marcos did not only have hidden wealth (he was notorious for being corrupt); he also had hidden health.
In fact, Marcos health was the favorite topic of discussions in opposition circles. Rumors of his death did not only circulate once of twice but several times. Every time those rumors went wild, Marcos would appear smiling to dispel them. But he was truly in bad physical shape. That he was sick could be denied as indicated by his limited public appearance outside of Malacanang, particularly in the 1980s.
When his health condition was confirmed, the Laurel brothers - former Speaker Jose Laurel Jr. and younger brother and former senator Salvador, or Doy - bolted out of the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL), which, during the years of dictatorship, served as the umbrella organization of all political parties, as if it was the Nazi Party. Marginalized by the KBL, the Laurel brothers negotiated and succeeded to form the United Democratic Organization, or Unido, with key opposition leaders like Gerardo Roxas and former president Diosdado Macapagal.
The Nacionalista Party, in which the Laurel brothers were key leaders, and the Liberal Party, to which Roxas and Macapagal belonged, were the two political parties that alternated in power during the premartial law days. The KBL virtually supplanted the two parties and a number of their leaders were absorbed by the KBL. Meantime, the Laurels and other LP leaders were consigned by Marcos to the sidelines. He did not share power with them.
Almost overnight, Marcos had an organized enemy when rumors of his failing health circulated in key political circles. It was said that no less than the station master of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency in Manila during those days knew and leaked the confirmed information about the health condition of Marcos. Although it was tightly guarded secret, this piece of information was immediately passed to opposition leaders, prompting them to organize, as Marcos weakened due to his ailment.
The rest is history. Unido became the second political coalition in the 1980s. It clamored for an end of the dictatorship and fought for the restoration of democracy. It called for a transition, which included the holding of clean, honest, peaceful, and orderly elections. Unido served as the political vehicle of the Cory Aquino - Doy Laurel ticket that challenged the Ferdinand Marcos - Arturo tandem in the 1986 "snap" presidential elections. Unido also represented the yellow political forces, which triggered the EDSA People Power Revolution that toppled the Marcos dictatorship immediately after the 1986 presidential elections.
Can we expect the same trend particularly now that the sick old man of the South is rumored to be very sick?
It was when the Marcos dictatorship was at its strongest in 1979, when astute dictator Ferdinand Marcos was rumored to have been suffering from a systemic autoimmune ailment called lupus erythematosus. This disease, which has no known cure, weakens the body's autoimmune system and attacks healthy tissues including kidneys. Marcos suffered kidney failure that arose from lupus.
Marcos had to undergo regular dialysis treatment. On August 7, 1983, he underwent kidney transplant with son Bongbong as donor. His condition was a tightly guarded secret. It was never confirmed. It was only after the Marcoses were kicked out of Malacanang in 1986 that details of his precarious health condition were made public.
But during his incumbency, Marcos and his minions hid his health condition. Although his face was bloated during the waning years of his dictatorship because of heavy steroid intake, Marcos cultivated the myth he was in perfect health. The scuttlebutt was that Marcos did not only have hidden wealth (he was notorious for being corrupt); he also had hidden health.
In fact, Marcos health was the favorite topic of discussions in opposition circles. Rumors of his death did not only circulate once of twice but several times. Every time those rumors went wild, Marcos would appear smiling to dispel them. But he was truly in bad physical shape. That he was sick could be denied as indicated by his limited public appearance outside of Malacanang, particularly in the 1980s.
When his health condition was confirmed, the Laurel brothers - former Speaker Jose Laurel Jr. and younger brother and former senator Salvador, or Doy - bolted out of the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL), which, during the years of dictatorship, served as the umbrella organization of all political parties, as if it was the Nazi Party. Marginalized by the KBL, the Laurel brothers negotiated and succeeded to form the United Democratic Organization, or Unido, with key opposition leaders like Gerardo Roxas and former president Diosdado Macapagal.
The Nacionalista Party, in which the Laurel brothers were key leaders, and the Liberal Party, to which Roxas and Macapagal belonged, were the two political parties that alternated in power during the premartial law days. The KBL virtually supplanted the two parties and a number of their leaders were absorbed by the KBL. Meantime, the Laurels and other LP leaders were consigned by Marcos to the sidelines. He did not share power with them.
Almost overnight, Marcos had an organized enemy when rumors of his failing health circulated in key political circles. It was said that no less than the station master of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency in Manila during those days knew and leaked the confirmed information about the health condition of Marcos. Although it was tightly guarded secret, this piece of information was immediately passed to opposition leaders, prompting them to organize, as Marcos weakened due to his ailment.
The rest is history. Unido became the second political coalition in the 1980s. It clamored for an end of the dictatorship and fought for the restoration of democracy. It called for a transition, which included the holding of clean, honest, peaceful, and orderly elections. Unido served as the political vehicle of the Cory Aquino - Doy Laurel ticket that challenged the Ferdinand Marcos - Arturo tandem in the 1986 "snap" presidential elections. Unido also represented the yellow political forces, which triggered the EDSA People Power Revolution that toppled the Marcos dictatorship immediately after the 1986 presidential elections.
Can we expect the same trend particularly now that the sick old man of the South is rumored to be very sick?
Certainly, of course. Marcos was so strong during those days to the point that he was so feared by his contemporaries and his minions. Yet, it took a handful to leaders to defy him to form the opposition coalition against his KBL. The sick old man is not in the league of Marcos to be feared. He is not expected to cast a deep influence in the reshaping of the alignment of the political forces in the political spectrum. It is most stupid to believe that those bloggers, their trolls, and fake news could influence the flow of political developments.
As his health deteriorates, the political dynamics is expected to change drastically too, altering the nation's political landscape. A new coalition would rise to challenge the sick's old man's coalition and even take over when he further dies or gets incapacitated. New political centers are expected to rise. The incumbent Vice President is expected to be the new center of political gravity. Who would assume the opposition is everybody's guess.
For sure, nobody wants to be left out in the next party in town. Everybody wants to gets invited. Political survival is the accepted norm among politicians. In fact, many politicians in the so-called "Super-Majority" know that the sick old man and the kind of politics he espouses are temporary trends, or even a political aberrations. When they see his health plunges, we would see them distancing from the sick old man and later criticizing it. There are no permanent things in this world. There are only political interests to protect.
As his health deteriorates, the political dynamics is expected to change drastically too, altering the nation's political landscape. A new coalition would rise to challenge the sick's old man's coalition and even take over when he further dies or gets incapacitated. New political centers are expected to rise. The incumbent Vice President is expected to be the new center of political gravity. Who would assume the opposition is everybody's guess.
For sure, nobody wants to be left out in the next party in town. Everybody wants to gets invited. Political survival is the accepted norm among politicians. In fact, many politicians in the so-called "Super-Majority" know that the sick old man and the kind of politics he espouses are temporary trends, or even a political aberrations. When they see his health plunges, we would see them distancing from the sick old man and later criticizing it. There are no permanent things in this world. There are only political interests to protect.
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