By Philip M. Lustre Jr.
THREE crises face the Philippines. The first is the crisis caused by the pandemic; the second, the crisis caused by China's incursions into our territory; and third, the crisis of confidence caused by the two other crises. They leave a big question on our capacity to survive as a nation. We begin to ask where our nation will go. Shall we float of sink. We're like a piece of driftwood, floating on water and we don't know where to go. This is probably the worst crisis of confidence we face since the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution.
Allow me to discuss the crisis brought by the Covid-19 pandemic
WE’RE IN FOR A TOUGH RIDE
BRACE up guys! We’re in for a tough ride in the coming days. This pandemic situation could last until next year, when we will have to go to the polling precincts to vote in the 2022 presidential elections.
Rodrigo Duterte and his ilk have not come out until now with any workable solution on the pandemic. They are lost. They are basically defeated dogs, who could no longer sustain a battle. They are confused and don’t know what to do.
This situation is being compounded by Duterte’s unwanted admission the pandemic will persist, as more people will get sick and die in the process. He had tried to assuage our ruffled feelings by saying defensively that “hindi tayo nagkulang (we didn’t lack anything).” This was a statement that was met with guffaws and social ridicule.
On the contrary, they have failed. Their failure has led to the pandemic's second wave, which continues to hit us with an unprecedented number of victims and deaths, said to be a record breaker in Southeast Asia.
The Covid-19 virus and its variants continue to ravage the nation in the most unexpected ways. They are peaking in number of victims and deaths as indicated by official data from the DoH.
The daily average of infection cases is around 10,000 persons over the last ten days, while the daily number of deaths is around 150 to 200 persons. DoH data also showed the number of active cases has increased to over 193,000 as of yesterday. It would likely hit the 200,000 by today.
The overall number of infection cases has breached the 900,000 mark and is expected to reach over one million by end-April. DoH data also places the positive rate at 20%, which means that for every 100 persons who underwent testing, 20 were positive.
As indicated by his TV appearances, no immediate solution appeared in sight. Duterte and his acolytes have not adopted what could be described the “best practices” among countries, which, although they don’t have sufficient vaccines, have come out solutions to stop its spread among their people.
On the contrary, Duterte and his ilk had the temerity to discuss the vaccine self reliance program, which will lead to the establishment of a vaccine manufacturing plant here. They naively believe it would take six months to build it, when experience shows it takes five to six years to construct one. This was definitely off the mark.
The pandemic requires immediate solutions to arrest its spread among Filipinos. This plan could wait. But where are the vaccines earlier promised by the vaccine czar Carlito Galvez, Jr., a retired military general, to flood the country within this year?
Vaccines are not coming. Even developed countries like the United States and Great Britain, which manufacture them, are having issues with their supplies. What they have earlier promised to give to the Philippines may not come at all because those supplies would have to go first to their people.
To make the long story short, we, the Filipino people, are on our own. We can’t expect much from our government. We shouldn’t let Duterte to lead our lives. We can’t expect much from them. They are useless.
What we have to do is to make clear to the presidential candidates to come forward with solutions for the pandemic. We have to make sure that we will only vote for the candidate that would come out with a spate of solutions
‘DEFEATIST’ FOREIGN POLICY
WHILE the pandemic has grown into crisis proportions, another crisis has erupted with neither indication nor provocation on the part of the Philippines. It is the crisis that is being brought by China right on our doorstep.
This is the crisis that is threatening our territorial integrity, as scores of Chinese vessels have swarmed our exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the West Philippine (WPS) and the reefs there. The WPS is part of the South China Sea, almost the whole of which is being claimed by China, the predatory power in the region.
Those Chinese vessels, the number of which range from 200 to 220, are not essentially after the rich natural resources in the Philippine EEZ. No, these vessels are not after the fishes, seaweeds, giant clams, coral reefs, and other marine flora and fauna, the total value of which could reach hundreds of billions of pesos.
Their presence indicates they want to establish China’s ownership of the South China Sea under the much maligned and rejected Nine-Dash Line Theory being espoused by China. This is the same theory, which the five-man Permanent Arbitration Commission of the United Nations Conference of the Law of Sea has dismissed as non-existent in the historic 2016 decision that reaffirms the Philippine maritime entitlements.
China's hegemony as shown by the unabashed presence of those Chinese vessels in PHL territory stems mainly from our foreign policy. No, it’s not that we don’t have a foreign policy on China. It’s not that we don’t know how to deal with China. But our foreign policy under the much detested Rodrigo Duterte has drastically changed since he became president in 2016.
From a policy of mutual understanding and treatment, it has degenerated into a policy of servitude. No, China and the Philippines are no longer on the same plane. Their relations are no longer based on equal terms. Duterte is the local running dog of Xi Jin-ping and the China Communist Party. He is their lackey, plain and simple.
Although the 1987 Constitution does not say that the incumbent president is the “chief architect” of PHL foreign policy, subsequent decisions establishes the power of the incumbent president to chart PHL foreign policy. But is does not mean the president could dictate what he wishes. They are usually subject to interaction and the constitutional precept of “checks and balance” by the three branches of government. This judicial doctrine is being thoroughly followed and adhered to in the previous administrations.
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THAT Duterte is a Chinese lackey is not a matter of perception. Facts support this assertion. In 2018, Duterte was said to have prohibited the Philippine Navy and the Philippine Coast Guard from conducting routine patrols of the West Philippine Sea. Then Magdalo Party List Rep. Gary Alejano revealed the prohibition, the information of which coming from his former colleagues in the Philippine Navy, and that has led China to establish military bases on those tiny specks of rock islands in the West Philippine Sea.
Duterte has agreed unilaterally to Xi’s suggestion for the Philippines to go slow in our assertion of the decision of the 2016 UNCLOS Permanent Arbitration Commission. Duterte cowardly agreed to Xi’s suggestion for the Philippines to resort to bilateral negotiations instead of asserting the UNCLOS decision. Incidentally, Duterte does not feel offended whenever he is described a “traitor” or a “quisling” in PHL-China relations.
China has been claiming ownership of a big part of South China Sea, citing as bases what it alleged as “historical presence” and the Nine-Dash Line theory. Over $5.3 trillion worth of commodities pass through the South China Sea to propel world commerce. China’s claim of ownership would restrict free passage of those goods along traditional sealanes, constricting free flow of world trade.
China’s claim of ownership of South China Sea on the basis of historic right and presence is being laughed at and ridiculed. China did not establish any foothold in South China Sea. What it had in the past were Chinese pirates, who marauded our villages, killed our men, raped our women, and snatched children for sale as slaves in some parts unknown.
The Nine-Dash Line theory, a modern-day invention, was an abomination because it was introduced in 2009 without mentioning the coordinates on the map to establish boundaries. It was laughed at and treated as merely a Chinese fiction.
In 2012, about 80-100 Chinese vessels swarmed the Panatag Shoal to form a phalanx as Chine’s way to establish ownership of that part of the West Philippine Sea. Some backchannel negotiations led by then Se. Sonny Trillanes happened and it prompted China to withdraw its maritime militia. In 2013, the PNOY government filed a case before the UNCLOS.
The Philippines won its case before the Permanent Arbitration Commission based in The Hague by dismissing China’s claim of ownership of South China Sea on the basis of the Nine-Dash Line theory. The 2016 decision is regarded historic because it forms part of the international law. This is their basis why the United States has brought its naval force in South China Sea.
Incidentally, the Philippines is not thoroughly pro-China. It government is divided into two factions: the pro-China faction led by Rodrigo Duterte, Bong Go, Jose Calida, or the so-called “Inferior Davao”; and the anti-China faction by Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana and DFA Secretary Teodoro Locsin. Duterte could not fire Lorenzana and Locsin because they are perceived to have the support of the United States.
The U.S., under Jose Biden, has changed its foreign policy to compete with China. Holding the 2016 UNCLOS decision, it has deployed its forces in the South China Sea to ensure freedom of navigation in that part of the world. China could not do anything. It is only Duterte and his ilk who have remained a lackey. His attitude has always been described as “defeatist,” as he kept on saying the PHL could not say no to China because it has weak maritime power.
The third crisis leaves us with the big question: Quo vadis, Philippines?
